Welcome to the Alabama Residential Real Estate Index™ (AL RREI). The AL RREI measures residential real estate expectations for the upcoming quarter gathered from a broad group of professionals working in residential real estate and related fields. Six key indicators create a composite index of overall market conditions and an outlook for the state’s metropolitan areas. Through the survey, panelists can take the pulse of the state’s residential real estate market as well as compare their own forecasts to those of their peers.

Register as a New Panelist for the Q2 2024 Survey Beginning March 1.

Click the “Register for the Survey” button below to register and complete the Q2 2024 survey beginning March 1st, 2023. If you are a returning participant, you do not need to re-register.

1st Quarter 2024 AL RREI Report

Index above 50 indicates a positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates a negative outlook.

Expansionary Forecast for Residential Markets in Q1 2024

The Alabama Residential Real Estate Index (AL RREI™) is a quarterly survey of residential brokers, sales agents, affiliates (loan officers, title agents, bankers, appraisers, etc.), and other industry professionals that measures market expectations for the upcoming quarter. An index value of 50 indicates a neutral outlook. Scores below 50 indicate a contractionary outlook while scores above 50 indicate an expansionary outlook.

In the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s survey, respondents in the Q1 2024 RREI registered a score of 62.6. This indicates that real estate professionals across the state expressed strong confidence that the statewide real estate market would expand during the first quarter. The Q1 index is 18.8 points above the Q4 2023 RREI, indicating a shift from moderate confidence in slowing market activity during Q4 2023 to strong confidence in accelerating market activity during Q1 2024. All six components of the AL RREI registered scores above 50 for the first quarter, indicating expectations of an overall expansionary outlook for residential real estate.

Statewide Component Index Analysis

  • Alabama Market Outlook: With a Q1 2024 index of 66.2, survey participants expect an expansion of residential market activity in Alabama with very strong confidence. This is 21.4 points above the Q4 2023 index. More than two-thirds of panelists (67.2%) Alabama’s market to improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. 
  • United States Market Outlook: With a Q1 2024 index of 61.8, survey participants expect an expansion of residential market activity in the United States with strong confidence. This is 21.7 points above the Q4 2023 index. More than half of panelists (58.0%) expect the national market to improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. 
  • Interest Rates: With a Q1 2024 index of 61.8, survey participants expect an expansion of residential market activity in the United States with strong confidence. This is 21.7 points above the Q4 2023 index. More than half of panelists (58.0%) expect the national market to improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.
  • Sales: With a Q1 2024 index of 62.4, survey participants are strongly confident that home sales will increase in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. This indicator increased 20.3 points from the Q4 2023 index. More than half of panelists (61.1%) expect sales to increase in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. 
  • Listings: With a Q1 2024 index of 67.6, survey participants are very strongly confident that listings will increase in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. This indicator increased 21.4 points from the Q4 2023 index. 71.8% of panelists expect listings to increase in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. 
  • Sales Prices: With a Q1 2024 index of 52.3, survey participants are mildly confident that sales prices will increase in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. This indicator had the smallest increase from Q4 2023, rising 4.4 points. 42.0% of panelists expect no change in sales prices in Q1, but more panelists expect sales prices to rise than to fall. 

Mobile Leads in Metro Confidence

Confidence in the residential real estate market varied by metro in the Q1 2024 survey.

Mobile recorded an RREI score of 70.8, the highest index among the state’s metro areas, indicating very strong confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from the area are very strongly confident that overall market conditions in Alabama and the United States will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. Mobile area panelists are very strongly confident that interest rates will decrease, and sales and listings will increase in Q1. However, area panelists are mildly confident that sales prices will decline in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

Daphne-Fairhope-Foley had the second-highest RREI score of 69.6, indicating very strong confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from the area are very strongly confident that overall market conditions in Alabama and the United States will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. Daphne-Fairhope-Foley area panelists are strongly confident that interest rates will decrease and very strongly confident that sales and listings will increase in Q1. However, area panelists were neutral for sales prices, expecting a continuation of last quarter’s home sales prices.

Montgomery recorded the third-highest RREI index with 64.0, indicating strong confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from the area are very strongly confident that overall market conditions in Alabama and the United States will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. Montgomery area panelists are strongly confident that interest rates will decrease, and sales, listings, and sales prices will increase in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

Dothan recorded the fourth-highest RREI index with 63.0, indicating strong confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from the area are very strongly confident that overall market conditions in Alabama will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter, but moderately confident in improving US market conditions during the same period. Dothan area panelists are very strongly confident that interest rates will decrease and sales and listings will increase in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. However, area panelists are mildly confident that sales prices will increase during the same period.

Birmingham recorded the fifth-highest RREI index with 62.5, indicating strong confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from the area are very strongly confident that overall market conditions in Alabama will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter, but moderately confident in improving US market conditions during the same period. Birmingham area panelists are strongly confident that interest rates will decrease, moderately confident that sales will increase, very strongly confident that listings will increase, and mildly confident that sales prices will increase in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

Huntsville recorded the sixth-highest RREI index with 61.1, indicating strong confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from the area are very strongly confident that overall market conditions in Alabama will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter, but mildly confident in improving US market conditions during the same period. Huntsville area panelists are very strongly confident that interest rates will decrease, strongly confident that sales will increase, very strongly confident that listings will increase, but mildly confident that sales prices will decrease in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

Tuscaloosa recorded the seventh-highest RREI index with 59.7, indicating moderate confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from the area are strongly confident that overall market conditions in Alabama will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter, but mildly confident in improving US market conditions during the same period. Tuscaloosa area panelists are moderately confident that interest rates will decrease, moderately confident that sales will increase, strongly confident that listings will increase, and mildly confident that sales prices will increase in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

Other MSAs recorded the lowest RREI index with 56.5, indicating moderate confidence in an expansionary forecast. Panelists from these areas are moderately confident that overall market conditions in Alabama will improve in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter, but mildly confident in improving US market conditions during the same period. Other MSA area panelists are moderately confident that interest rates will decrease, moderately confident that sales will increase, and strongly confident that listings will increase in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter. However, area panelists were neutral for sales prices, expecting a continuation of last quarter’s home sales prices.

First-quarter data was not available for Auburn-Opelika and Decatur as there were not enough survey participants to calculate a statistically significant score. However, ACRE projects that participation will increase for the second quarter 2024 survey.

Expansionary Outlook by Majority of the Industry

This quarter, all of the six industry groupings had an index score above 50. Residential sales professionals had the highest score of the group with an index of 65.1, up from 44.7 in the Q4 2023 survey and indicating very strong confidence in the expansionary forecast. This category expressed very strong confidence in decreasing interest rates and increasing sales and listings, and mild confidence in increasing sales prices in Q1 2024.

Residential brokers came in second with an index of 62.0, up from 42.1 in the prior quarter and indicating strong confidence in an expansionary forecast for the residential real estate market. This category expressed very strong confidence in decreasing interest rates and increasing listings, strong confidence in increasing sales, and a neutral outlook for sales prices in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

All other respondents placed third with an index of 58.3, up from 50.6 in the prior quarter and indicates moderate confidence in the expansionary forecast. This category is moderately confident in decreasing interest rates, mildly confident in decreasing sales, and strongly confident in increasing listings and sales prices in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

Affiliates, a group that includes loan officers, title agents, bankers, and appraisers, had the lowest index of the industry groupings, tallying an index of 56.0 this quarter, up from 35.8 in the prior quarter. This indicates moderate confidence in the expansionary forecast. Affiliates are very strongly confident in decreasing interest rates, mildly confident in declining sales and rising home prices, and strongly confident in increasing listings in Q1 2024 compared to the prior quarter.

Data was not available for home builders as there were not enough responses to calculate a statistically significant index score. However, ACRE anticipates increased participation in the second quarter survey.

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